Thursday, January 10, 2008

Recent Price History Of Petroleum

A recent low point was reached in January 1999 ($11 per barrel), after increased oil production from Iraq coincided with the Asian financial crisis, which reduced demand. The prices then rapidly increased, more than doubling by September 2000 (35 dollars per barrel), then fell until the end of 2001 before steadily increasing, reaching US $40 to US $50 per barrel by September 2004. In October 2004, light crude futures contracts on the NYMEX for November delivery exceeded US $53 per barrel and for December delivery exceeded US $55 per barrel. Crude oil prices surged to a record high above $60 a barrel in June 2005, sustaining a rally built on strong demand for gasoline and diesel and on concerns about refiners' ability to keep up. This trend continued into early August 2005, as NYMEX crude oil futures contracts surged past the $65 mark as consumers kept up the demand for gasoline despite its high price. Crude oil futures peaked at a close of over $77 a barrel in July 2006, and in December 2006 at about $63. That is just about where they began the year 2006.

On August 1, 2007, US crude reached a new intra-day high of $78.77 a barrel after the
Energy Information Administration announced that oil stocks in the US were below market expectations and refinery output had increased. Following further reflection the price later slid backwards.

On September 14, 2007, US crude (WTI) reached a new intra-day high of $80.36 a barrel. Multiple factors have caused this high price. OPEC announced an output increase lesser than expected. US stocks fall lower than experts predicted and a leftist group in Mexico attacked six pipelines.

On October 16, 2007, US light sweet crude rose to a new record of $87.97 on the news that non-OPEC oil producers were expected to reduce daily output by approximately 110,000 barrels.

On October 19, 2007, US light crude rose to $90.02 per barrel due to a combination of ongoing tensions in eastern Turkey and the reducing strength of the US dollar. Prices fell briefly on the expectation of increased US crude oil stocks, however they rose again rapidly to a peak of $92.22 on October 26, 2007 when stocks were revealed to have instead fallen. This was repeated on October 31, 2007, when an expected 100,000 barrel rise in US crude oil stockpiles turned out to be a 3.9 million barrel fall, pushing US light crude oil prices to another new record of $96.24. Prices continued to rise to a peak of $98.62 on November 7, 2007 before starting to fall.

On January 2, 2008, oil prices rose to $100 per barrel on the combined effect of violence in Nigeria, Algeria, and Pakistan, the weak US dollar and the threat of cold weather, however this price was a one off deal and the only time oil has been sold for more than $100. The trader who paid $100 almost immediately sold the contract for less than $100, and took a loss. Therefore, this one $100 trade for oil remains in question, as some believe this trader might have had other motives for the purchase and subsequent loss.

On January 3, 2008 oil again hit an intra-day high of almost '$100 due to higher than expected decline in crude oil supplies.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Where Does BTM (Business Technology Management) Fit?

Business Technology Management (BTM) is a management science that seeks to unite business and technology decision-making at every level in an organization. BTM delivers a set of guiding principles, known as BTM Capabilities. These capabilities are combined to form BTM solutions, around which a company's practices can be organized and improved. BTM also defines the expected characteristics of an organization according to five levels of a maturity model.
Most companies employ a number of methodologies and techniques to improve business and technology alignment. While many of these methods have acknowledged strengths, they typically represent piecemeal solutions. Disparate islands of practice exist within the technology management domain, particularly in the areas of operations and infrastructure. These range from the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) and Balanced Scorecard to the Software Engineering Institute’s Capability Maturity Model (CMM). However, none of these approaches focuses on integrating and enabling the capabilities necessary to achieve strategic business technology management and the sustainable value that follows. The danger of relying solely on “downstream” technology management methodologies is that by the time alignment problems become apparent they may be irreversible. Furthermore, when methodologies are borrowed from the business domain, there are often deficiencies with respect to focus, goals/objectives and adaptability. For example, Balanced Scorecard is a performance measurement methodology originally designed for the HR function, and Six Sigma is a quality improvement methodology first applied to the manufacturing function. These methodologies are often applied to technology operations with varying degrees of success, but they may not be comprehensive enough to address the unique needs of business-technology integration.
BTM addresses this challenge by providing a set of guiding principles around which a company’s practices can be organized and improved. It harmonizes and integrates and elevates previously isolated tools and standards for “IT” management to deliver a seamless strategic management approach that begins with the concerns of Board and CEO and connects that all the way through business technology investment and implementation.
Related Links:
Umbrella Company

Friday, January 4, 2008

Purchasing Power Parity

The purchasing power parity (PPP) theory uses the long-term equilibrium exchange rate of two currencies to equalize their purchasing power. Developed by Gustav Cassel in 1920, it is based on the law of one price: the idea that, in an efficient market, identical goods must have only one price. A purchasing power parity exchange rate equalizes the purchasing power of different currencies in their home countries for a given basket of goods. It is often used to compare the standards of living between countries, rather than a per-capita gross domestic products comparison at market exchange rates. Market exchange rates tend to fluctuate much more wildly than PPP exchange rates. Aside from this volatility, consistent deviations of the market and PPP exchange rates are observed.

The PPP exchange-rate calculation is controversial because of the difficulties of finding comparable baskets of goods to compare purchasing power across countries. Estimation of purchasing power parity is complicated by the fact that countries do not simply differ in a uniform price level; rather, the difference in food prices may be greater than the difference in housing prices, while also less than the difference in entertainment prices. People in different countries typically consume different baskets of goods. It is necessary to compare the cost of baskets of goods and services using a price index. This is a difficult task because purchasing patterns and even the goods available to purchase differ across countries. Thus, it is necessary to make adjustments for differences in the quality of goods and services. Additional statistical difficulties arise with multilateral comparisons when (as is usually the case) more than two countries are to be compared.

When PPP comparisons are to be made over some interval of time, proper account needs to be made of inflationary effects. Using market exchange rates to compare countries' standard of living or per capita Gross Domestic Product can give a very misleading picture. The exchange rate only reflects traded goods in contrast to non-traded ones. Also, currencies are traded for purposes other than trade in goods and services, e.g., to buy capital assets whose prices vary more than those of physical goods. Also, different interest rates, speculation, hedging or interventions by central banks can influence the foreign-exchange market.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Membership And Qualifications For US House Of Representatives

The United States House of Representatives is one of the two chambers of the United States Congress; the other is the Senate. Each state receives representation in the House proportional to its population but is entitled to at least one representative; the most populous state, California, currently has 53 representatives. Public Law 62-5 of 1911 currently fixes the total number of representatives at 435, though Congress has the authority to change that number. Each representative serves for a two-year term. The presiding officer of the House is known as the Speaker, and is elected by the members. The present House delegations by state are shown in the article List of U.S. states by population.

Under Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution, seats in the House of Representatives are apportioned among the states on the basis of population, as determined by the census conducted every ten years. Each state, however, is entitled to at least one Representative.


The only constitutional rule relating to the size of the House says "The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand." As the population of the
United States increased, Congress regularly increased the size of the House after the census to account for growth; but the limit became obsolete when Congress fixed the size of the House at 435 seats in 1911. The figure was temporarily increased to 437 in 1959 to reflect the admission of Alaska and Hawaii as states (seating 1 representative from each of those states without changing existing apportionment), and returned to 435 four years later, after the reapportionment consequent to the 1960 census, prior to the 1962 election).

The Constitution does not provide for the representation of the
District of Columbia or of territories. However, Congress has passed legislation permitting them to elect non-voting delegates or Resident Commissioners. One delegate each represents the District of Columbia and the territories of American Samoa, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico elects a Resident Commissioner, who holds the only office in the House with a four-year term; other than the longer term, the Resident Commissioner's role is identical to the delegates from the other territories. The Northern Mariana Islands do not currently elect any sort of representative to Congress, although former Rep. Richard Pombo of California that would have allowed them to do so introduced legislation. Delegates and Resident Commissioners are permitted to participate in debates and vote in committees. On 24 January 2007, the House changed its internal rules (by passing H. Res. 78 to permit the non-voting delegates and Resident Commissioner to vote in the Committee of the Whole when their votes would not be decisive.

On 19 April 2007, the House of Representatives passed HR 1905, the DC House Voting Rights Act of 2007, a bill "to provide for the treatment of the District of Columbia as a Congressional district for purposes of representation in the House of Representatives, and for other purposes" by a vote of 241 - 177. That bill proposes to increase the House membership by two, making 437 members, by converting the District of Columbia delegate into a member, and (until the 2010 census) grant one membership to Utah, which is the state next in line to receive an additional district based on its population after the 2000 Census. The bill is under consideration in the U.S. Senate during the 2007 session.