Thursday, January 10, 2008

Recent Price History Of Petroleum

A recent low point was reached in January 1999 ($11 per barrel), after increased oil production from Iraq coincided with the Asian financial crisis, which reduced demand. The prices then rapidly increased, more than doubling by September 2000 (35 dollars per barrel), then fell until the end of 2001 before steadily increasing, reaching US $40 to US $50 per barrel by September 2004. In October 2004, light crude futures contracts on the NYMEX for November delivery exceeded US $53 per barrel and for December delivery exceeded US $55 per barrel. Crude oil prices surged to a record high above $60 a barrel in June 2005, sustaining a rally built on strong demand for gasoline and diesel and on concerns about refiners' ability to keep up. This trend continued into early August 2005, as NYMEX crude oil futures contracts surged past the $65 mark as consumers kept up the demand for gasoline despite its high price. Crude oil futures peaked at a close of over $77 a barrel in July 2006, and in December 2006 at about $63. That is just about where they began the year 2006.

On August 1, 2007, US crude reached a new intra-day high of $78.77 a barrel after the
Energy Information Administration announced that oil stocks in the US were below market expectations and refinery output had increased. Following further reflection the price later slid backwards.

On September 14, 2007, US crude (WTI) reached a new intra-day high of $80.36 a barrel. Multiple factors have caused this high price. OPEC announced an output increase lesser than expected. US stocks fall lower than experts predicted and a leftist group in Mexico attacked six pipelines.

On October 16, 2007, US light sweet crude rose to a new record of $87.97 on the news that non-OPEC oil producers were expected to reduce daily output by approximately 110,000 barrels.

On October 19, 2007, US light crude rose to $90.02 per barrel due to a combination of ongoing tensions in eastern Turkey and the reducing strength of the US dollar. Prices fell briefly on the expectation of increased US crude oil stocks, however they rose again rapidly to a peak of $92.22 on October 26, 2007 when stocks were revealed to have instead fallen. This was repeated on October 31, 2007, when an expected 100,000 barrel rise in US crude oil stockpiles turned out to be a 3.9 million barrel fall, pushing US light crude oil prices to another new record of $96.24. Prices continued to rise to a peak of $98.62 on November 7, 2007 before starting to fall.

On January 2, 2008, oil prices rose to $100 per barrel on the combined effect of violence in Nigeria, Algeria, and Pakistan, the weak US dollar and the threat of cold weather, however this price was a one off deal and the only time oil has been sold for more than $100. The trader who paid $100 almost immediately sold the contract for less than $100, and took a loss. Therefore, this one $100 trade for oil remains in question, as some believe this trader might have had other motives for the purchase and subsequent loss.

On January 3, 2008 oil again hit an intra-day high of almost '$100 due to higher than expected decline in crude oil supplies.

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